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Predictions about artificial intelligence from former Google VP Andrew Moore

http://www.businessinsider.com/predictions-about-artificial-intelligence-from-former-google-vp-andrew-moore-2015-12

We’re already starting to see big developments in artificial intelligence.

Whether it’s robots learning to speak like humans or a system capable of identifying landmarks in photos, artificial intelligence will continue to become a bigger part of our daily lives.

Andrew Moore, the former vice president of engineering at Google, told Tech Insider that big developments in artificial intelligence are coming, but that change will be gradual. Still, he envisions a lot happening in the next 10 years.

It’s a theme we explore in our latest episode of Codebreaker, the podcast by Marketplace and Tech Insider.

Here are six predictions Moore, who is now dean of Carnegie Mellon’s School of Computer Science, has for artificial intelligence in the next 10 years. And be sure to tune into Codebreaker to find out more ways artificial intelligence is shaping our lives.

3 to 5 years: AI will be much better at being your “personal concierge.”

3 to 5 years: AI will be much better at being your "personal concierge."

Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Moore said in the next three to five years, AI like Siri will be much better at being our personal assistants. In that time frame, we will be able to ask more of our AI, Moore predicts.

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For example, AI may be able to help us decide whether we need to see a doctor for an ailment. Or help recommend somewhere to eat based on our preferences and previous restaurants we visited.

5 years: AI will be able to process massive amounts of information during a crisis.

5 years: AI will be able to process massive amounts of information during a crisis.

Getty / NOAA

During natural disasters, it’s difficult to process all of the information coming in and devise a plan to provide the most immediate relief.

Moore said he thinks in the next five years, AI will become intelligent enough to do the thought processing for us. That means processing what is happening and making judgment calls, such as determining how many people need to be on hand for whatever is happening.

5 years: Similarly, robots will be able to communicate with each other to coordinate a plan.

5 years: Similarly, robots will be able to communicate with each other to coordinate a plan.

Joe Raedle / Getty Images

We’ve already started seeing this in practice with robots playing soccer at the RoboCup World Championship.

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But eventually, artificial intelligence will become advanced enough such that robots can work in teams to help each other during bigger situational problems, like search and rescue missions, Moore said.

10 years: AI will be able to catch massive medical trends before humans.

10 years: AI will be able to catch massive medical trends before humans.

Adam Berry/Getty Images

Moore said AI will be able to detect the outbreak of a disease before humans can in the next decade.

It can be difficult to determine that what appears as a one-off problem could actually be a trend, especially if patients are seeing different doctors at different times. AI, on the other hand, could sort through data to alert health professionals of potential outbreaks before they are capable of catching on.

10 years: driverless cars will be able to make judgment calls.

 10 years: driverless cars will be able to make judgment calls.

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This is already a discussion that’s in the works today. If a driverless car is in a situation where it has the option to hit another car or a pedestrian, which will it choose? The ability to make an ethical choice like that is not something autonomous vehicles are currently capable of doing, as highlighted in a recent MIT study.

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But Moore said he thinks artificial intelligence will advance to a point where, in 10 years, driverless cars will be able to make those calls.

What we won’t see in the next 10 years: AI becoming evil

What we won't see in the next 10 years: AI becoming evil

Paramount Pictures

“We’re not going to see evil terminator robots,” Moore said, adding that we are still “very far” from robots thinking like humans. We’re not at a point where AI can do more than the tasks it’s been programmed to do, whether that’s cooking or working as your personal assistant.

What could make AI turn evil?

“Maybe if, one day, we know enough about animal or human brains to simulate them,” Moore says.

Read more…

 

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