How AI could create a world of haves and have nots

Artificial intelligence is all over the news, with tech titans arguing over whether it will be a force for good or bad. An equally important question is whether AI will stratify society even more, and create a world of haves and have nots.

AI is already impacting multiple industries and will take over many blue collar and white collar jobs in the years to come. The speed and severity with which this happens are what creates the biggest challenges for the US and countries around the world. Add to this the geopolitical implications, recently outlined in an important op ed by Kai Fu Lee, and even weak AI can be seen as a scary thing.

So, we need to be proactive and create alternative career paths as AI impacts jobs and takes away many employment opportunities. Let’s look at what this means in the near term (next decade), medium term (10-20 years) and long-term (20-plus years).

As AI grows in the coming years, mostly blue collar jobs will first be impacted. The political reality is that this will likely not cause major policy changes as higher earners remain largely unaffected by job changes and possibly benefit from AI’s positives. As autonomous vehicles run by AI take over from taxi drivers (and make transportation more reliable, faster and open up spaces currently occupied by parking garages) and robots with AI take over all but specialized work on factory floors (making production costs lower which hopefully translates into less expensive goods), blue collar workers will have few alternatives to pivot to in their careers.

We will likely see increased polarization in society unless programs are put into place early on to create “soft landings” through training in careers which cannot be automated easily.  For some, this could be jobs with heavy interpersonal interactions, for others learning the basics of working with and programming AI. Overall though, it is likely to be a tough time for those without a strong education base.

By the late 2020s, AI will become commonplace and most blue collar jobs will likely be a shadow of their former selves. In addition, white collar workers in areas including healthcare and financial services will also be under pressure: who needs a lab technician to read your X-ray when an AI can do it faster, cheaper and at least as well? To be sure, white collar workers are going to be under pressure long before this, but it will take some time before the professional class sees their career options change markedly. For better or worse, the time that this does happen is when we are likely to see major societal changes.

More white collar workers will transition to jobs that can only be done by humans, but this, too, will be limited. Low-level programmers who understand coding may be able to quickly learn how to program an AI, but others outside of tech, like lawyers — many of whose jobs will be eliminated — will face a much more daunting transition to new careers.

There is no consensus, but within the next twenty years, we will likely see the emergence of AI at least as smart as human beings.