What’s a CFO’s Biggest Fear, and How can Machine Learning help?

It’s 5:05pm EST. Bob, CFO of ABC Inc is about to get on an earnings call after just reporting a 20% miss on earnings due to slower revenue growth than forecasted. Company ABC’s stock price is plummeting, down 25% in extended hour trading. The board is furious and investors demand answers on the discrepancies.

Inaccurate revenue forecast remains one of the biggest risks for CFOs. In a recent study, more than 50% of companies feel their pipeline forecast is only about 50% accurate. Projecting a $30M revenue target and coming in short $6M can leave investors and employees frustrated and feeling misguided on the growth trajectory of the Company.

In the past 10 years, supply chain has become much more complex with omni-channel distribution and the increasing number of indirect participants that can influence product demand. Advertising and promotions can create an uplift in demand that spikes sales by 20% or more. In addition, different types of customers have different purchasing behaviors. These behaviors are driven by a myriad of underlying indicators and should be modeled individually. Yet, Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) has not changed fundamentally despite the changing landscape in the way companies do business. The process is still largely manual and dependent on time-series estimation techniques dating back to the 1980s.